Bulls defend 3,330, the road to 3,378 stays open
The daily, weekly and long-range read on gold, from the chart out. Every level on this page is drawn before it is discussed.
On this page
In 30 seconds
Full read: about 9 minutes- Price now3,352.10 (+0.4%), holding above the 3,330 pivot since Friday.
- VerdictBULLISH while 3,330 holds on a closing basis.
- Key levelsSupport 3,330 and 3,318 · first target 3,378 · weekly resistance 3,395.
- Next catalystFOMC minutes on Wednesday evening, ECB rate decision on Thursday.
Today's forecast
Updated today, 14:05 CETThe morning dip into 3,341 was bought within the hour, and after a midday push to 3,366 gold has settled into a quiet drift just above 3,350. That is the third time in five sessions that sellers have failed to force a close below the 3,330 pivot, and each rejection has come on lighter volume than the last. The market is telling us who is in charge for now.
Two things stand out on the intraday chart. First, the buying at 3,341 arrived before the level most desks were watching, which usually means larger hands are accumulating rather than waiting for a bargain. Second, the afternoon pullback from 3,366 has been orderly: higher lows, shrinking candles, no panic. Orderly pullbacks in an uptrend tend to resolve upward.
As long as 3,330 holds on a closing basis, the working plan stays unchanged: dips remain buying opportunities and the first upside target sits at 3,378, the June consolidation high. Above that the weekly chart takes over, with resistance at 3,395 the last barrier before a run at the round 3,400.
- 3,395weekly chart barrierMAJOR
- 3,378first target, June high
- 3,372top of today's range
- 3,341this morning's bought dip
- 3,330the daily pivotMAJOR
- 3,318last week's low
Tomorrow
Wednesday is minutes day, and gold rarely sits still through an FOMC release. The base case is a quiet European session inside 3,340 to 3,365, then a decision after 20:00 CET. A dovish read on the minutes likely forces the 3,378 test a day early; a hawkish surprise probably revisits 3,330, where we would expect the same buyers to show up a fourth time.
This week
The weekly structure remains a bullish flag hanging off the July high. Three closes above 3,330 would complete the pattern and open the measured move toward 3,395, which is also where the falling trendline from the spring high comes in. Friday's flash PMI round is the calendar checkpoint: a soft print would weigh on the dollar and help the move along, while a hot one likely pushes the 3,395 test into next week.
Bull case, bear case, one verdict
Every Kagels forecast argues both sides at exact prices before it takes a side. Here is the honest version of each.
- Three defended tests of 3,330 in five sessions, each on falling volume.
- Every pullback since the January low has bottomed at a higher level; the stair-step is intact.
- A close above 3,378 completes the flag and targets 3,395, then the round 3,400.
- Every rally since June has stalled under 3,378; the supply there is real.
- A hawkish set of minutes lifts the dollar and knocks out 3,330 in one candle.
- Below 3,318 the flag fails, and 3,280 is the next meaningful shelf.
Bullish while 3,330 holds on a closing basis. First target 3,378, then 3,395. A daily close below 3,318 voids the setup and moves us to the sidelines, not to the short side.
Gold in 2026: the bigger map
Zoom out to the weekly chart and the story is simpler than the daily noise suggests: a stair-step uptrend from the January low near 3,020, with every pullback shallower than the last. The trend that pays is the boring one.
The year target stays 3,600. It is not a number picked from the air: it is the measured move of the first-quarter base, projected from the May breakout, and it lines up with where the long-term channel top sits in the fourth quarter. The invalidation is equally concrete: a weekly close below 3,150 would break the stair-step and put the year in a sideways register between 3,000 and 3,400 instead.
2027 and beyond
The long-range read changes slowly, so we keep it folded until you need it. Both sections below are updated when the monthly chart gives us a reason, not on a calendar.
2027 The case for a push toward 4,000
If 2026 closes anywhere above 3,400, the monthly chart enters 2027 with an unbroken sequence of higher yearly lows stretching back to 2018. Central bank buying, the structural driver of this cycle, shows no sign of slowing in the reserve data, and the round 4,000 sits one measured move above the 2026 channel top. Our working 2027 corridor is 3,450 to 4,000, refined each quarter.
2028+ The decade view: what would end this bull market
Secular gold bulls have historically ended with one of two signatures: a parabolic blow-off on record volume, or a two-year distribution under a round number. Neither is on the chart today. Until one appears, the decade thesis stays constructive, and we treat every yearly forecast as a refinement inside it rather than a fresh bet. The monthly trendline from the 2015 low, now rising through the high 2,000s, is the line the whole thesis stands on.
Upcoming catalysts
The scheduled events most likely to move gold over the next two weeks. Times are CET; entries are illustrative for this design preview.
| Date | Event | Why it matters for gold |
|---|---|---|
| Wed 22 Jul · 20:00 | FOMC minutes | The rate-path debate inside the Fed drives real yields, gold's main counterweight. |
| Thu 23 Jul · 14:15 | ECB rate decision | A surprise cut weakens the euro, lifts the dollar and pressures the 3,330 pivot. |
| Fri 24 Jul · 09:30 | Eurozone flash PMI | First read on European growth; moves the euro and, through the dollar, gold. |
| Fri 31 Jul · 14:30 | US core PCE | The Fed's preferred inflation gauge; a hot print delays cuts and caps rallies. |
Frequently asked questions
How often is this gold forecast updated?
Two to three times every trading day: after the European open, around the US open, and when the market makes a move that changes the levels. Every update carries a visible time stamp, so you always know how fresh the read is.
Where does the 3,378 target come from?
It is the June consolidation high, the last place sellers absorbed a rally. Targets in these forecasts are always chart locations where something happened, never round numbers picked for effect. The next reference above it, 3,395, comes from the weekly trendline.
Is this forecast investment advice?
No. It is a published market analysis with the reasoning shown. What you do with it depends on your own situation, and leveraged products can lose you money quickly. The full risk disclosure is linked in the footer.
What method sits behind these levels?
Classical chart technique: support, resistance, trend structure and measured moves, read top-down from the yearly chart to the intraday chart, so every horizon has its own map. No black-box indicators, no signals for sale.
About the author
Karsten has traded gold, indices, forex and commodities for four decades, and has published his forecasts on kagels-trading.de since 2015, where German traders have checked his levels against the market every day since. The English edition brings the same discipline: levels first, both sides argued, verdict stated, time stamp visible.
More about Karsten and the method