Market forecasts from 40 years at the charts.
Concrete, chart-based forecasts for ten markets, written by Karsten Kagels and revised two to three times every trading day. Levels you can check, not opinions you have to trust.
No hype and no signals for sale. Chart technique and COT data, published openly since 2015.
Today’s forecast board
Refreshed 12 min agoTen markets, revised as the day develops. Open any row for the written read and its levels, switch to the board view to see the day grouped by bias, or press ⌘K to jump straight to a market.
Gold XAU/USD 3,352.10 +0.4% Bullish 12 min ago
Bulls defended 3,318 overnight. The dip was bought within the hour, and as long as the price holds that zone on a closing basis, the path toward 3,368 stays open. A quiet dollar is doing half the work.
- Support
- 3,318
- Resistance
- 3,368
- Invalidation
- close < 3,295
S&P 500 SPX 6,281.50 +0.2% Bullish 22 min ago
Grinding higher below 6,300. One red day does not break a structure; the 6,240 shelf is the first level that matters. A breakout over 6,300 needs volume behind it, and COT data still shows large speculators net long.
- Support
- 6,240
- Resistance
- 6,300
- Invalidation
- close < 6,195
Nasdaq 100 NDX 22,940.75 -0.3% Neutral 18 min ago
A minus day led by three names is not distribution. Breadth is thin, which caps the upside for now, but 22,600 is the support with real volume behind it. Between the two, patience.
- Support
- 22,600
- Resistance
- 23,120
- Invalidation
- close < 22,480
Dow Jones DJI 44,470.00 +0.1% Neutral 35 min ago
Rangebound between 44,200 and 44,700. Nothing to do until a weekly close outside the band. The range is three weeks old; the longer it holds, the more the eventual break will carry.
- Support
- 44,200
- Resistance
- 44,700
- Invalidation
- hold < 44,000
Silver XAG/USD 38.14 +1.1% Bullish 9 min ago
The strongest metal on the board. Pullbacks toward 37.20 keep getting bought, and the gold-silver ratio is still narrowing. 38.60 is the next level to watch; above it the July high comes into play.
- Support
- 37.20
- Resistance
- 38.60
- Invalidation
- close < 36.90
Crude Oil WTI 66.85 -0.6% Bearish 41 min ago
Sellers defend 68. Supply headlines are noise; the level is not. Below 66.20 the correction extends toward 64.80, and commercial hedgers reduced shorts for the third consecutive week.
- Support
- 66.20
- Resistance
- 68.00
- Invalidation
- close > 68.40
EUR/USD FX majors 1.1642 +0.1% Neutral 15 min ago
Pressing the top of a three-week range ahead of the ECB minutes. 1.1580 is the line the bulls must hold; a daily close above 1.1680 would turn the range into a base. Until one side gives, range rules apply.
- Support
- 1.1580
- Resistance
- 1.1680
- Invalidation
- close < 1.1520
Nikkei 225 NI225 39,680 +0.5% Bullish 52 min ago
Back above 39,500 with momentum improving into the Tokyo close. The yen is doing the index a favour this week. 40,000 is the round number in play; expect it to be defended on the first attempt.
- Support
- 39,200
- Resistance
- 40,000
- Invalidation
- close < 38,900
US Dollar Index DXY 98.32 -0.2% Bearish 28 min ago
Heavy under 99. Every bounce since the June high has been sold earlier than the last. Dollar weakness keeps supporting the metals; 97.80 is the next decision level below.
- Support
- 97.80
- Resistance
- 99.00
- Invalidation
- close > 99.40
SpaceX pre-IPO $350B est. Watch this week
Secondary marks cluster around a 350 billion dollar estimated valuation. A weekly read, not a tick chart: this entry is updated when new private rounds or tender offers actually price, and treated as context, not a trade.
Open the SpaceX briefPrices are indicative snapshots from the last forecast update, not live quotes. Every full forecast page embeds the live TradingView chart with the levels marked.
How a forecast is made
The same three steps since 1986.
Chart technique first
Support, resistance, trendlines and formations, marked directly on the TradingView chart you can open yourself. No black-box indicators, no curve-fitted systems, the same way of reading price for four decades.
COT data as the filter
The weekly Commitments of Traders report shows what commercial hedgers and large speculators are actually doing with their money. Every chart scenario is checked against that positioning.
Levels, not opinions
Each forecast names the level that confirms it and the level that cancels it, so you can act on it or check it against the record. When a level breaks, the read changes the same day.
The person behind the page
Forty years at the charts, and still reading them every morning.
Karsten Kagels placed his first trade in 1986 and has traded through every market regime since: the 1987 crash, the dot-com years, 2008, the pandemic. Since 2015 his German site kagels-trading.de has been a reference for chart-based market analysis, and every forecast on this site is his own work, not syndicated content.
- 1986First trades in futures and foreign exchange. Charts kept by hand, on paper.
- 1987A crash in year one. The lesson that risk comes before opinions.
- 2008COT data earns its permanent place in the method.
- 2015kagels-trading.de goes live. Forecasts published in the open, in German, ever since.
- 2026The English desk. Same board, same method, new language.
Analyses featured on TradingView, Investing.com and Goldseiten. Rated on ProvenExpert.
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