Market forecasts · Updated 2–3× every trading day

Forecasts written while the market moves.

Concrete, chart-based analysis for gold, the major indices, currencies and oil, from Karsten Kagels, a trader with 40 years at the charts. Levels, scenarios and invalidation points. No hype.

Last update today, 14:32 CET · Gold, S&P 500, EUR/USD
Engraving-style illustration of a rising market chart across ridge lines
Today’s forecasts

Ten markets. Every one updated today.

Each forecast is revisited two to three times per trading day, with fresh TradingView charts, key levels and a clear directional bias.

Karsten Kagels

Karsten Kagels, trader since 1986,
founder of kagels-trading.de

Why Kagels

Forty years at the charts, and still reading them every morning.

Karsten Kagels has traded through every market regime since 1986: the 1987 crash, the dot-com bubble, 2008, the pandemic. Since 2015 his German site kagels-trading.de has been a reference for chart-based trading education, and every forecast on this site is his own work, not syndicated content.

The method is deliberately old-fashioned: classical chart technique to define levels and scenarios, and CFTC Commitments of Traders data to see how commercial hedgers and large speculators are actually positioned. Every forecast states what would prove it wrong.

40
years of chart experience
2015
German trading authority since
2–3×
forecast updates per trading day
10
markets he actually trades

Classical chart technique

Support, resistance, trend structure and formations, read from the price itself, on the same TradingView charts you can open at home.

COT positioning data

Weekly Commitments of Traders reports show where commercials and large speculators stand, a reality check on every chart read.

Latest analysis

From today’s desk

All analysis →
Gold Gold defends the 2,400 shelf as real yields drift lower The pullback stopped exactly at the old June breakout. Above 2,395 the path toward 2,440 stays open; a daily close below invalidates the setup. Today, 14:32 CET S&P 500 S&P 500: chip-led dip meets an intact weekly uptrend One red day does not break a structure. The 5,590 area is the first level that matters; COT data still shows large speculators net long. Today, 11:05 CET EUR/USD EUR/USD grinds at 1.1440 ahead of the ECB minutes The pair is pressing the top of a three-week range. A breakout needs a daily close above 1.1480; until then, range rules apply. Today, 08:47 CET Crude Oil WTI slips below 78, watching the 76.20 swing low Supply headlines are noise; the level is not. Commercial hedgers reduced shorts for the third consecutive week. Yesterday, 16:20 CET
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