Kagels Trading
Professional market forecasts from 40 years at the charts. Updated two to three times every trading day.
The pullback stopped exactly at the old June breakout. Above 3,295 the path toward 3,410 stays open; a daily close below 3,268 invalidates the setup.
Gold, daily chart. Levels from today's 14:32 CET forecast. Charts on TradingView.
One red day does not break a structure. 6,190 is the first level that matters.
The pair is pressing the top of a three-week range; until then, range rules apply.
Supply headlines are noise; the level is not. Commercial hedgers reduced shorts for the third consecutive week, a quiet shift that usually matters more than the day's news flow.
Forecasts are revisited two to three times per trading day: after the European morning, around the US open, and in the late session. The lead forecast always names its next update time.
A minus day led by three names is not distribution. The 22,600 area is the first support worth the name.
The strongest chart on the board this week. 36.90 now has to hold on any pullback.
Dow Jones: 44,470 holds the range; nothing to do until 44,900 or 43,800.
Nikkei 225: 39,680 after a firm Tokyo close; the yen still sets the tone.
US Dollar Index: 98.32, drifting lower; supportive for the metals.
SpaceX (pre-IPO): $350B estimated valuation on secondary markets this week.
Karsten Kagels, trading since 1986, founder of kagels-trading.de
I have traded through every market regime since 1986: the 1987 crash, the dot-com years, 2008, the pandemic. Since 2015 my German site kagels-trading.de has been a reference for chart-based trading education, and every forecast on this site is my own work, not syndicated content.
The method is deliberately old-fashioned. Classical chart technique defines the levels and scenarios; the CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows how commercial hedgers and large speculators are actually positioned. Every forecast states what would prove it wrong. That sentence is the product.
Support, resistance, trend structure and formations, without the indicator soup.
What commercial hedgers and large speculators can tell you, and what they cannot.
The one decision that decides whether you survive your learning curve.
Why a level is a zone, and how to draw it the same way twice.
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