Market forecasts · Ten markets · Updated 2–3× daily

The day's levels, read with forty years of patience.

Concrete, chart-based forecasts for gold, the major indices, oil and the leading currency pairs. Written by Karsten Kagels, trading since 1986, and revised two to three times every trading day.

GOLD · XAU/USD · SPOT
3,352.10
+0.4% today · updated 12 min ago
Scroll · the ledger
Nº 01 · Today's ledger

Ten markets, kept current.

Every entry is a written forecast: a plain directional bias, the levels that confirm it and the level that cancels it. Revised two to three times per trading day with TradingView charts.

Film still of a glowing gold candlestick chart THE GOLD DESK · FILM
Gold XAU/USD · SPOT
3,352.10 +0.4% Bullish

Bulls defended 3,318 overnight. As long as the metal holds that shelf, the path toward 3,368 stays open. A daily close below 3,318 cancels the setup.

UPDATED 12 MIN AGO Read the full gold forecast
S&P 500SPX

Grinding higher beneath 6,300. The breakout shelf at 6,240 is the first level that matters.

6,281.50 +0.2% Bullish 24 MIN AGO
Nasdaq 100NDX

A minus day carried by three names. 22,600 is the support with the volume behind it.

22,940.75 -0.3% Neutral 24 MIN AGO
Dow JonesDJI

Rangebound between 44,200 and 44,700. Waiting for a weekly close outside the band.

44,470.00 +0.1% Neutral 41 MIN AGO
SilverXAG/USD

Strongest metal on the board. 36.90 has to hold on any pullback.

38.14 +1.1% Bullish 18 MIN AGO
Crude OilWTI

Sellers keep defending 68. Below 66.20 the correction has room to extend.

66.85 -0.6% Bearish 52 MIN AGO
EUR/USDFX MAJORS

Pressing the top of a three-week range ahead of the ECB minutes. 1.1580 is the line underneath.

1.1642 +0.1% Neutral 9 MIN AGO
Nikkei 225NI225

Back above 39,500 with momentum improving into the Tokyo close.

39,680 +0.5% Bullish 47 MIN AGO
US Dollar IndexDXY

Heavy below 99. Persistent dollar weakness keeps a bid under the metals.

98.32 -0.2% Bearish 33 MIN AGO
SpaceXPRE-IPO · SECONDARY

Secondary-market prints continue to cluster around a 350 billion dollar estimated valuation.

$350B est. Watch THIS WEEK

Prices are indicative snapshots from the last forecast update, not live quotes. Each forecast page embeds the live TradingView chart.

Nº 02 · The method

The same craft since 1986.

No black boxes and no indicator soup. Three steps, applied the same way for four decades.

I.

Chart technique first

Support, resistance, trendlines and formations, marked directly on the TradingView chart. Classical technique, read from the price itself.

II.

COT data as the filter

The weekly Commitments of Traders report shows how commercial hedgers and large speculators are actually positioned. Every scenario is checked against it.

III.

Levels, not opinions

Each forecast names the level that confirms it and the level that cancels it, so you can act on it, or check it against the record.

“Every forecast names the level that would prove it wrong.”
Karsten Kagels · Founder, Kagels Trading
Nº 03 · The record

Forty years, on the record.

Karsten Kagels, founder of Kagels Trading
Karsten Kagels · Trading since 1986

Karsten Kagels placed his first trade in 1986 and has read charts through every regime since: the 1987 crash, the dot-com years, 2008 and the post-2020 markets. The chart habit never changed.

Since 2015 his German site kagels-trading.de has been a daily reference for chart-based market analysis, published in the open where anyone can check it. The English desk brings the same board and the same method to a new audience. Every forecast on this site is his own work, not syndicated content.

40
Years at the charts
2015
Publishing in the open
2–3×
Revisions per day
10
Markets covered
Nº 04 · From the desk

Written today, not this quarter.

Nº 05 · The morning note · Free

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