Gold Forecast | Live Updates and Outlook

Gold

XAU/USD · Spot

3,352.10 ▲ +0.4%

Updated 40 min ago 2 of 3 daily updates published

Live updates

Karsten updates this forecast two to three times every trading day: morning, midday and after the US close. The newest read is always on top; the standing outlook further down changes only when the chart does.

Next update expected after the US close, around 22:00 CET

MONDAY, 21 JULY TODAY

14:05 CET MIDDAY UPDATE 40 min ago

Gold holds the 3,330 pivot, bulls keep the upper hand

Bias: bullish Range today: 3,335 - 3,375 Target 3,378 unchanged Support 3,330 unchanged

The morning dip into 3,341 was bought within an hour, and price has since reclaimed the opening range. As long as 3,330 holds on a closing basis, the path toward 3,378 stays open. Volume on the recovery leg was better than on the dip, which is what you want to see if you lean bullish.

Levels drawn from this updateIntraday · 5 min · 09:00 to 14:05 CET

Above 3,378 the next objective is the weekly resistance at 3,395. I would not chase strength into that zone; the better trade location remains the pullback. Below 3,330 the picture changes, see the bear scenario further down.

SUPPORT

3,330daily pivot, bias line
3,318last week's value low
3,296July breakout base

RESISTANCE

3,378first upside target
3,395weekly chart resistance
3,412measured move extension

09:12 CET MORNING UPDATE Dip to 3,341 finds buyers before the London fix

Gold opened the European session heavy and slipped to 3,341, but the dip was absorbed quickly and without follow-through selling. The overnight range stays inside Friday's candle, so nothing about the bullish read changes yet. Watching 3,330 as the line in the sand for the day.

FRIDAY, 18 JULY

21:58 CET AFTER THE CLOSE Weekly close above 3,340 keeps the uptrend intact ▲ Support raised 3,326 → 3,330

A strong weekly close at 3,349.80, the third higher weekly close in a row. The pivot moves up from 3,326 to 3,330, tracking the rising short-term trendline. Into next week the first target stays 3,378; the weekly resistance band at 3,395 is unchanged.

14:10 CET MIDDAY UPDATE Quiet consolidation under 3,355, bias unchanged

A narrow inside day so far. As long as the market consolidates above the pivot rather than rejecting it, consolidation counts as strength. No level changes at midday.

09:05 CET MORNING UPDATE Firm overnight session, options expiry in focus

Asia held the ground gained on Thursday. Monthly options expiry can pin price to round numbers into the afternoon, so intraday noise around 3,350 means little today.

Show earlier updates · Monday 14 to Thursday 17 July, 11 updates

Thu 17 · 22:04Failed probe under 3,332 reversed, pivot survives the week's only real test

Thu 17 · 14:12Range day between 3,336 and 3,358, no level changes

Thu 17 · 09:08Softer dollar overnight supports the metal into the EU open

Wed 16 · 21:55Close at 3,344, second attempt at 3,360 sold, targets unchanged

Wed 16 · 14:06Midday stall under 3,360, watching the US session for direction

Wed 16 · 09:10Gap-less open, buyers defend 3,338 in early trade

Tue 15 · 22:01Constructive close at 3,340 after CPI, bias stays bullish

Tue 15 · 14:15CPI reaction two-sided, range 3,326 to 3,352 inside an hour

Tue 15 · 09:02Positioning light ahead of US CPI, expect a wider range

Mon 14 · 21:58Weekly support base confirmed at 3,326 after quiet start

Mon 14 · 09:06New forecast week opens with gold holding above 3,330

Older updates are archived. Everything that still matters from them is carried into the standing outlook below, so you never trade off a stale paragraph.

THE STANDING OUTLOOK

Beyond today's tape

These horizons move slowly on purpose. They are revised with the daily updates only when a level breaks or the weekly chart changes character.

Last full revision: Fri 18 Jul, after the close

Tomorrow Expected range 3,340 - 3,380

Tuesday brings no top-tier US data, so the session should stay technical. A quiet drift up into 3,378 would fit the pattern of the last two weeks: shallow dips, steady grind higher. If the target is reached early, expect a first rejection; that level has capped three rallies this month.

This week Expected range 3,318 - 3,395

The week is bracketed by last week's value low at 3,318 and the weekly resistance at 3,395. The FOMC decision on Wednesday 30 Jul falls into next week, so this week is about positioning, not resolution. A weekly close above 3,378 would put 3,395 and then 3,412 on the table; a close back under 3,330 would turn the week neutral at best.

Bull and bear, both argued

BULL CASE

Every dip since early July has been bought above the rising pivot, now 3,330. Higher weekly closes, three in a row, and firm demand at the London fix.

Holding 3,330 targets 3,378 first, then the weekly resistance at 3,395. Through 3,395 on a closing basis, the measured move points to 3,412.

BEAR CASE

The rally has stalled three times under 3,378, and speculative positioning is no longer light. A stronger dollar into the FOMC would test the bulls' patience.

A daily close below 3,330 opens 3,318 quickly, and below that the July breakout base at 3,296 becomes the magnet. That close would also flip the daily bias to neutral.

VERDICT

Bullish while 3,330 holds on a closing basis. First target 3,378, then 3,395. A daily close below 3,330 invalidates the bullish read and shifts the focus to 3,318 and 3,296.

2026 and beyond

2026 outlook Uptrend intact · working target zone 3,500

Weekly candles, 2026 year to dateLevels from the standing outlook

Year support 3,150 Working target 3,500 Extension 3,600

The weekly uptrend from the spring low is intact, a stair-step of higher lows with the last major base at 3,150. As long as weekly closes hold above that shelf, the working target for the year stays the 3,500 zone, with 3,600 as the extension if central bank buying keeps its current pace.

The main risk to the yearly read is not a single data point but a regime change in real yields. It would show up on this chart as a failed higher low, which is why the 3,150 shelf, not any headline, is the level that matters.

2027 outlook Scenario framework · 3,300 to 4,000 band

Monthly closes with 2027 scenario bandProjection, not a price promise

A year out, precision is false comfort, so 2027 is a framework rather than a forecast: a base case that extends the current trend into a 3,700 - 4,000 zone, and a consolidation case that ranges between 3,300 and 3,600 while real yields normalise. The monthly trendline from the 2024 low is the dividing line between the two.

The longer horizon Why the secular case has not changed

Three secular drivers sit under every shorter read: central banks have been net buyers for years and show no sign of stopping, government debt keeps growing faster than output, and gold remains the only reserve asset without a counterparty. None of that tells you what next week looks like. It tells you which direction the surprises tend to break.

There is deliberately no fixed price target at this distance. Beyond the 2027 framework, a number would be precision theatre, so this section stays a direction and a set of drivers until the chart earns more.

Upcoming catalysts

DATE	EVENT	WHY IT MATTERS FOR GOLD
Thu 24 Jul	ECB rate decision	Sets the euro leg of the dollar index, which gold trades against
Thu 24 Jul	S&P Global flash PMIs	First read on July growth; weak prints support the metal
Wed 30 Jul	FOMC rate decision	The week's main event; the rate path drives real yields
Fri 1 Aug	US nonfarm payrolls	A hot number lifts the dollar and tests the 3,330 pivot

Times and events are confirmed in the morning update on the day.

Frequently asked questions

How often is this gold forecast updated?

Two to three times every trading day: a morning update around the European open, a midday read, and a wrap after the US close. Every update carries its own time stamp, and the newest one always sits at the top of this page.

What is the gold price forecast for 2026?

The working target for 2026 is the 3,500 zone, with 3,600 as the extension, as long as weekly closes hold above the 3,150 support shelf. The full reasoning and the weekly chart are in the 2026 outlook section above.

Is this forecast investment advice?

No. It is a technical read of the chart, published openly with its reasoning and levels so you can check the working. What you do with it is your decision, and leveraged trading carries substantial risk of loss.

Which method is behind these levels?

Classical chart technique: support, resistance, trend structure and measured targets, read top-down from the yearly chart to the intraday timeframe. The same discipline Karsten has applied on the German site since 2015.

Karsten Kagels

Founder, Kagels Trading · trading gold, indices and forex since 1986

Karsten has traded through every gold cycle since the mid eighties and has published his forecasts openly on kagels-trading.de since 2015. Every read on this page shows its levels and its reasoning, so you can follow the logic, not just the arrow.

About Karsten